The OPEC cartel is proving to have wider shoulders, but its shoulders weigh more than ever. The three major oil importers in the US, Japan and India have doubled the pressure in recent days. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Increase the pumps. Purpose: To stop the price rise that is putting consumers in trouble and contribute along with gas prices. Central banks are raising inflation to the point where it is starting to get harder to digest.
“The idea that Saudi Arabia [el líder de facto del grupo de exportadores], Russia and other large manufacturers are not going to pump much, so it is not right that people can come and go to work. ” Joe Biden, When G20 Summit Held last weekend in Rome. A few hours later it was the turn of his energy secretary Jennifer Gronholm: “The price of petrol depends on what is happening in the world oil market. That market is controlled by a cartel: OPEC. So that poster has more to say [que yo] About what is happening ”. He criticized the fact that while global demand for crude oil had already returned to pre-epidemic levels, distribution had not yet been done so.
Indian Oil and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri and Japanese Trade and Industry Minister Koichi Hakiuda have made similar comments in recent days. Meanwhile, China and the European Union, the world’s largest crude importers, are quiet.
The U.S. insistence that OPEC raise its production ceiling is, in essence, a response to the additional cost its drivers face each time they go to refuel: the cost is about 40% higher than it was at the beginning of the year. Like Spain and other European countries, on the other side of the Atlantic, petrol prices have been high for more than seven years, leading to a sharp rise in general inflation.
The poster stands firm
OPEC, which pumps nearly four out of every 10 barrels consumed in the world – five out of 10 if Russia’s production is added, the country that coordinates its results – meets this Thursday to boost its production. But everything indicates that it will do so in a very modest way: 400,000 barrels a day – agreed in August, while crude still trades around $ 65, almost $ 20 below current levels – far from current levels. Of importers.
According to Eurasia Consultancy estimates, the idle capacity of cartel countries is four to five million barrels a day more than their current pumps, but Saudi Arabia argues that demand is still declining due to the epidemic and that it is not the time to put it off. More crude in the market.
Demand is increasing
The global economic recovery, the approach of winter and the recent rise in oil prices due to two new factors: Natural gas prices skyrocketing – its price has quadrupled so far this year – which has led to a shift in crude oil derivatives. Reactivation of potential sectors and commercial aircraft, which has led to an increase in kerosene consumption after the summer. Meanwhile, seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere will continue to increase in the coming weeks. “Crude consumption will remain relatively strong throughout the year and in the first quarter of 2022,” Eurasia Consulting technicians acknowledged in a recent note to customers.
At the same time, in recent months, global oil supplies have been reduced not only by exporters’ cartel self-imposed restrictions, but also by external factors such as the damage they cause. Hurricane Ida At several oil bases located in the Gulf of Mexico.
Compared to the forecasts of other investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, there is no denying that a barrel is oil. Brent (European scale) reaches $ 100 in the medium term, a report released this week predicts that crude oil will average $ 85 next year. Before that it will drop to $ 75 in 2023. Also in the long range of 50 to 70 dollars yes The COP26 meeting is taking place in Glasgow It does not illuminate new decarbonization obligations.
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