The Indian economy recovered. Then came the second wave of Govt

(CNN Business) – India’s economy took a turn earlier this year as the country began to emerge from the recession of 2020. But the catastrophic rise in COVID-19 cases threatens that progress.

Asia’s third-largest economy grew 1.6% in GDP in the January-March quarter, compared to a year earlier, according to official figures released on Monday. It is faster than growth 0.5%, Announced in the previous quarter.

Strong performance was not enough to prevent India’s economy from shrinking by 7.3% in the overall financial year ending March.

India fell into recession For the first time For almost a quarter of a century, last year, after a month-long nationwide lockout, it imposed strict restrictions on trade and travel.

While those measures helped control the spread of COVID-19, many of the poorest and most vulnerable were left without income for weeks, leaving deep scars on the economy.

India hoped that its latest recovery would begin to heal those economic wounds.

As early as March, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted that India would regain its position The world’s fastest growing major economy, And forecasts 12.6% growth for the current financial year.

But that was before a brutal second wave hit the country.

For several weeks, India had been reporting Thousands of deaths related to Govt-19 A staggering number every day has recently begun to decline.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi to prevent millions of people from falling back into poverty Opposed Pressure to impose another national lockout, even as the infection rate continues to rise.

Unemployment is on the rise

However, regional governments have issued restrictions on several major production centers, the impact of which will affect the economy.

Unemployment has already risen to more than 10% in May, a level not seen since it closed last year, according to the Center for Monitoring the Economy. India.

“This is not normal for India,” the private think tank said in a statement. Double the latest double-digit unemployment rate indicates that even these restrictions [regionales] They affect the economy.

Despite these tough numbers, most economists believe the country will publish a post Increase About 10% this year. To do this, the infection must be rapid.

But analysts are concerned about the slow pace Vaccine, Which may consistently reduce functionality.

As the vaccine campaign is declining we are not just taking too much summary [el trimestre abril-junio] Recently, but since then we have been looking for a peaceful recovery, ”Priyanka Kishore, an economist at the Oxford Economy, wrote in a research note on Monday.

The OECD cut India’s growth plan for the current financial year is 9.9% on Monday.

“India is projected to be the fastest growing G20 economy in 2021, but far from its pre-crisis GDP growth trend,” the OECD said.