March 25, 2023

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Soybean oil: International prices are falling and demand from India is skeptical

In Argentina’s subtle currency reserve, the Lean campus And within him The Soybeans and Derivatives (Flour, pellets, oil) is a The main piece to maintain the flow of coins You must enter central bank accounts.

When integrated data for the full year are available, the soybean complex Completed a contribution of nearly US $ 25,000 million, With the participation of soybean oil, is a product with 33% higher market value in this subgroup. Thus, estimated By 2021, the foreign exchange contribution of soybean oil will be about US $ 7 billion.

Good global demand and 33% growth in international prices By 2021, for the third year in a row, Argentina will be at the top of the list of countries exporting this product.

This privilege level is likely to be in 2022, but it is not certain that conditions of price and demand will continue.

Good global demand and international prices grew by 33% in 2021, making Argentina the highest on the platform of countries exporting this product.

A recent report from Department of Agriculture of the United States (USDA, its abbreviation in English), this year soybean oil production is growing worldwide and maintains that it is possible. 60 million tons to break the barrier, Which accounts for almost half of Argentina.

Exports: Forecasts for 2022, will they fall or retain their highs?

But some yellow lights are on. “Argentina will be the leading exporter with 49% market share for the second year in a row. However, it does.e Argentina shows 2.4% decline in exports of soybean oil campaign“, Confirms an analysis Rosario Stock Exchange, Regarding the opportunities of the oil seed complex.

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An important point in this regard is that the four major soybean oil producers – the United States, China, Brazil and Argentina –

Only in our country will production decline.

Marcelo Elizondo: “International prices will be lower in 2022 and exports will not grow”

At the local level, meanwhile, the main suspicion is relevant The strength of Indian market demand, Is the main destination for the export of this product, 47% of total exports.

“With predictions Increase in soybean oil production and reserves in India, The country is expected to reduce its imports, and Argentina will sell a small portion of this target in the 2021/22 season, ”the Rosario Stock Exchange predicted.

In terms of prices, this year in particular the increase in production and demand will absorb that amount.

2021 combines the rise in prices of vegetable oils for three consecutive years. Argentina FOB prices of soybean oil are rising Year-over-year 33% for the third year in a rowRosario Stock Exchange report says.

For its part, FOB value Sunflower oil Views in National Ports a 23% increase year on year, தி In palm oil Growing by more than 33% Year and in Golsa, Is leading with 63% increases within twelve months.

With A ton of soybean oil is worth $ 1360, US $ 495 for grain and US $ 467 for flour are a key factor in this market price. For the entry of foreign currency.

From Oil world, The company, which specializes in global oilseed market forecasts, maintains this price range. “Does not seem to be stable in 2022 “, Remember the Rosario Stock Exchange.

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For the next campaign, a Strong production and exports rise again with the growth of demand, What gives Rough signals for oil prices for the 2021/22 season“, BCR explains.

And he concludes: “Actually, it is possible The downhill path has already begun, Consider the price of olive oil from late October to December Soybeans, palm and sunflower concentrate 6.7%, 10.4% and 4.5%, respectively.

But this panorama can change

Locally, the outlook for the Indian market, Argentina’s major exporter of soybean oil, is closely followed, accounting for more than 47% of total exports over the past five years. With forecasts to increase production and stock of soybean oil in India, the country is expected to reduce its imports and Argentina will sell a small quantity to this target in the 2021/22 season.