India is on track to become the fastest growing economy in 2021 – Télam

According to various analysts, India is expected to lead the growth of global economies in 2021, thanks to better-than-expected growth in production and a stronger momentum in the Govt-19 vaccine campaign.

Thus, The country is expected to grow by 9.2%According to a survey by economists of the Bloomberg News Agency, this represents the fastest growing rate in the world’s major economies.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its “Global Economic Outlook” report, the so-called world economy and the so-called advanced economy will grow by an average of 6% and 6.3% by 2021, with India doing 9.5%.

The data reflect this recovery: the country’s Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation announced on Tuesday a Recorded 20.1% year-on-year GDP growth during the April-June period, Driven by construction and production.

Corona virus infection

The government avoided establishing new national isolation after the second quarter wave.

After the first quarter of the recovery, the country experienced severe eruptions in March and early June this year, culminating in more than 4,000 deaths a day, although the local government avoided establishing a new isolation.

India, a country with a population of 1.4 billionIt is the second most infected country in the world after the United States. 439,341 deaths and 32,850,063 cases have been recorded to date.

In the last week Reached 600 million doses against the corona virus, With the vaccine campaign increasing its pace in recent weeks.

Although only 15% of the population has two doses, it is expected to reach half the population by the end of this year with the full picture.

“Economic damage appears to be lower than previously thought. With the second wave under control, a quick recovery appears.””

Rahul Pajoria, Economesta de Barclays

“Economic damage is lower than previously thought” He pointed to Bloomberg Rahul Pajoria, chief economist at Barclays UK Bank. “Second wave seems to be under control, quick recovery”.

As a result of the second wave, forecasts for the economy were reversed (the IMF initially expected a 12.5% ​​increase in April), the impact of the sanctions was less than last year (where one of the world’s toughest locks was imposed), and The demand is strong.

To Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the University of Chicago School of Business; Despite a certain “suppressed request” In the Indian economy, There are “scars” especially in the lower class and small businesses, The increase in demand is expected to be “very low”.

Managers in local businesses noted Production is recovering in July: The IHS Market Institute’s BMI Index rose to 55.3 points from 48.1, indicating an expansion above 50.

In the same way, Export Third Asian economy (one-fifth of its GDP) Has grown over the past eight monthsThis indicates a strong global demand for its products and services.

Monetary and financial policies

The risk of a possible third wave prevented the country’s central bank from converting its expansionary monetary policy to its reference rates of at least 4%: the company’s governor Shaktikant Das said last week that these measures would not be implemented. Despite the inflationary pressures, the change is surprising.

In that sense, Prime Minister Narendra Modi Plans to complement the cash incentive with financial measures. In this way, his government plans to finance $ 81.9 billion over the next four years by leasing assets from state infrastructure. Fund new capital expenditures without increasing deficits.