June 8, 2023

Great Indian Mutiny

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India beat China through Alex Rodriguez

India is set to become the most populous country in the world for the first time in human history. It will do so next year, four years ahead of schedule, according to the United Nations’ latest population report. It will have a population of 1,429 million in 2023 and dethrone China, which the UN says will “experience a complete decline in its population”.

Population growth and devastation present a problem for the two Asian powers, members of the select club of nine nuclear-armed nations. India will also be a poor country. Its high fertility rate has historically been associated with poverty, high infant mortality and low levels of education for women. Technological power, India is a largely rural country (only half of the population will live in cities by 2050) and idea Smart city Dominating the political conversation, about 24% of the urban population still lives in unhealthy suburbs. It is a country with deep inequalities that cannot benefit from the demographic dividend, the economic growth that can result from changes in the structure of the population.

China has benefited from this economic dividend since the 1970s, when the proportion of working-age people (15-59 years) rose to exceptionally high levels and averaged an annual growth rate of 10%. Now, its population is aging as a result of the one-child policy instituted in 1979. Therefore, China is losing competitiveness, which represents a future threat to the empire’s ambitions at the center, which is competing with the United States for world leadership.

India and China’s population boom and bust will shape the future of Asia and the rest of the world. A mostly aging world that fears The Methuselah Effect : Population group of elderly will rise. Methuselah, Noah’s grandfather, lived 969 years and was the oldest of the Old Testament patriarchs.

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