June 6, 2023

Great Indian Mutiny

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India are trying to match its third exit from Kabul

India is the country most disturbed by the scale and speed of the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan. No country outside NATO has so much faith in the government established in Kabul since 2001 – and has not put in the money. The Parliament of Afghanistan, now obsolete, was the gift of India and the flesh and blood of the respective intelligence services.

But the attack by the Taliban, this time, drowned out the Panshri “opposition”, cheered by Indian television and was already generously supported by New Delhi in the 1990s. So, in practice, India, which last jumped off the ship, is trying to win the indirect victory of its neighbor and nuclear rival Pakistan.

The main thing is that for the third time in more than three decades, India was expelled from Kabul. This was already the first Taliban coup, in 1996, before that, in the 1980s, when the United States and Pakistan armed Islamic guerrillas, Indira Gandhi and later her son Rajiv bet on a secular and pro-Soviet government. Some Sikh merchants, in particular, had to go back and forth several times.

In other words, a guerrilla imposes Pakistan three times in a row on India: with the US, without the US and against the US. A real red line to Rawalpindi. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post.

The newly introduced interim government is none other than the old Taliban guard and cannot be pro-Pakistan. But to the surprise of the Indian government, the Taliban have made formal contacts for the first time this month.

It is noteworthy that the new Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani was behind a series of bloody attacks on other Indian troops in Afghanistan in recent years.

Controversial Kashmir

India and Afghanistan will touch the unequal map of Indian school students

The Indian ruling class must adapt to the new reality, however its causal mental agility will disappear when it collides with the state cause. It should be remembered that in the official Indian maps India and Afghanistan touch each other, they are learned in school.

Among them, Afghanistan borders not only China but also India on the Waqf Pavement. With the difference that it is something that can be verified in the first case, hundreds of kilometers of Kashmir territory under Pakistani rule divides Indians and Afghans.

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However, before the epidemic, an air transport between Kabul and New Delhi operated for many years, in order to avoid Pakistan’s plug. The immigration offices in New Delhi have had two queues for many years: one for Afghanistan and the other for the rest of the world. In the majority of private hospitals in Delhi, Afghanistan is crowded with patients.


Tens of thousands of Afghans have been living in Delhi or using its hospitals for years

In recent years, they have opened several restaurants in some southern areas, such as the Muslim-majority city of Malviya Nagar, where they have seen a rented apartment. In fact, it is difficult to see Afghans on television without weapons, one of the most peaceful and well-integrated foreign communities in India.

This sentiment is mutually exclusive and Indians generally appreciate it more than Pakistanis – i.e. the Pakistani political-military elite in Pakistan. Although for the simple reason they are both not ground players, they are less involved in their affairs.

In addition, Pakistan, which covers the vast territory of Pashtun – two out of every three Pashtuns – is not recognized by any Afghan government, in honor of the British Durant tax, but by the Taliban.

In fact, the relationship between Afghanistan and northern India is not an exception but has been stable throughout history. Principals like Bhopal were in the hands of Afghan dynasties before independence. Often in the hands of a woman, five of the last six Nawabs were actually Begums or Sultans. For centuries, the two regions shared Persian as a court language and high culture, which continued to dominate Kabul or Herat.


Afghans like Indian cultural influence more than Pakistani intervention

For all this, India will become a valuable counterweight to the Taliban, who feel indebted to Pakistan. There is no cinema more popular than Bollywood cinema in Afghanistan, even though among the entire population, India especially relies on the second largest ethnic group Tajiks.

The regional dimension of the war in Afghanistan is generally going unnoticed in the West, and its sense of superiority is intoxicating. However, the two dimensions have been intertwined for more than twenty years.

It did so when an Indian Airlines plane was hijacked by a propaganda team in Kathmandu and taken by the Taliban to Afghanistan. Three months after 9/11, he did it again when the Pentagon inevitably dared to send a terrorist order against a Pakistani Indian parliament.

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In the same way, for the next twenty years, Pakistan hid its moderate nuclear weapons and confronted the United States and the rest of NATO with the left and left hand to deny a friendly government in Kabul.

Finally, what is geography and orography – the relief between Kandahar and Saman is flat like a table – and what India prefers is a red line to Pakistan, like the Kashmir Valley to India.

Pakistan has imposed a hefty red tax from serious exporters to terrorist importers, especially on the last years of General Pervez Musharraf and the immortal assassination of Osama bin Laden in its territory.


Afghanistan will allow China to build a threatening economic corridor in Pakistan

The derivation of Pakistan’s political success may be a Chinese economic victory, which makes India very sad. Islamabad has not missed an opportunity to attribute all the attacks claimed by the “Baloch separatists” or “Pashtun Islamists” to the terrorists being paid by New Delhi, and in recent times, trying to disrupt the Sino-Pakistani economic corridor – the quartet between Karakoram and the port, with many Chinese engineers among the victims.

Such a walkway could now, via Afghanistan and Iran, have an alternative route to the Arabian Sea. Its export merchant fleet in the Straits of Malacca and its hydrocarbon supplies help to avoid possible wartime congestion again.

Even if India finally abandons the “Cooperation Government of Kabul” – from a rebel point of view, it is not entirely correct to say that it is trapped in security. From a perspective, it is clear that decisions such as the partition of Indian Kashmir two years ago and its direct administration from New Delhi are related to the results expected in Kabul.

His secret services are tracking any possible descendants in the valley. A Taliban spokesman said Kashmir was beyond Afghanistan’s jurisdiction, but responded that they had the right to speak out for another “Muslim cause.”

However, in the conflict in Afghanistan, the Indians cut the grass under their feet by bringing the Hindu-dominated party, the BJP, to power in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pro-US and pro-Israel stance on Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, if not a setback in relations with Iran, has inevitably resulted in a cold.

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However, Indian investments in Afghanistan’s roads were precisely aimed at improving Afghanistan’s communications with Iran, particularly the port of Sabah, India’s target for Afghanistan and Central Asia around Pakistan. Maybe next time.

AUKUS vs. Quad

Excluded from the new military agreement between India and Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Washington’s growing pursuit of foreign policy, simulating India’s desire to weigh as much as possible, can be corrected based on two recent events, the turn in Afghanistan with US fears and this week, Agus.

As is well known, although India is part of a similar maritime framework to face China in the Indo-Pacific Agas, both it and Japan have been excluded from their new strategic puppet by the three Anglo-Saxon nations abbreviated as Australia and the United Kingdom. And the United States.

India, which has already joined Pakistan in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, may have found a new impetus for not putting all eggs in one basket. The external balance of the Modi years is beyond doubt: the loss of Indian influence in each of its neighbors, to the same extent that China has.

However, despite a political, military and its bloody imbalances – the economic giant, the lack of a common border with Afghanistan only prevents a prolonged turn on the board, as if it had cut off Pakistan and won. Pakistan. Its most populous region, today is Bangladesh. The price it will pay is the opportunity for Pakistan to mobilize more troops on its Indian border and on the side of disputed Kashmir.

A turbulent regional situation that has brought the director of the CIA and the director of the Russian National Security Agency to New Delhi in recent days.

Finally, in the same way that US weapons were able to cross the same Pakistani territory as a haven for rivals, another high-priced object was magical enough to cross the naval border or the impenetrable barrier between India and Pakistan. – It has fenced off most of its borders with Afghanistan.

That substance is opium, or its derivative, heroin. With less than three tonnes worth more than two billion euros, it was concealed as unimaginable “talcum powder” in the port of Gujarat this Tuesday. In those powders, this mud.