June 3, 2023

Great Indian Mutiny

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India and Brazil, in Search of Strategic Ambiguity by Cristina Manzano

You are nobody today if you don’t organize An international conference. The calendar begins with the Davos Economic Forum in January, followed by the Munich Security Conference in February. In early March, India has just held the Raisina Dialogue. thereby attracting worldwide attention. During those days, political, economic and intellectual leaders from all over the world mainly discuss Geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges. This is an example of the desire of the ‘other’ major Asian country to make its voice heard among other emerging powers.

This year, in addition, it held a meeting in parallel G20 Foreign Ministers — hosted by its interim chairman India — and the Quad meeting, which includes Japan, the United States, India and Australia — is a response to the rise of Chinese military power. For a few days, Delhi has been the diplomatic capital of the world. A precursor to the larger role India wants to take on the world stage.

As background music, inevitably, War in Ukraine, including in the presence of Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov. In the menu, as needed Reforming a dysfunctional multiplicity and the Indian art of maintaining strategic ambiguity. It would allow Russia to do so without overtly criticizing it, against Western double standards, but would continue to defend the rules-based international order. He who claims No country tells others what to do Think or decide you’re tired of being constantly reminded that you’re benefiting from better Russian oil prices.

On another continent, Another regional giant is playing Strategic Ambiguity with Ukraine War: Brazil.

During the election campaign, Candidate Lula was surprised By saying that both sides are to blame for the war in Ukraine. Then he painted. Today, as president, his policy is not to intervene in the war in any way, on the contrary Try doing that in your quest for peace. “We decided not to send ammunition because we did not want the war with Russia to continue. “There is an urgent need to find mediators for peace, a word rarely used in this conflict”, he declared recently.

After years of external isolation The presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, Lula wants to restore international leadership to Brazil. Although he seems determined to try, it is not easy with such a complex internal environment To consolidate the Latin American position It will help bring peace. A few days ago he spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who hopes Lula will help better articulate his position in the region. Latin American countries Mostly condemned Russian invasion of the United Nations, but they generally see it as a Europe-only matter.

In his conversation with Zelensky, Lula defended Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Something I’ve obviously never done before; But your aim is to maintain balance in your relationship with the two conflicting parties which can give you a good starting point To encourage some form of peace negotiations. Brazil is remembered for its role, along with Turkey, in the reconciliation between the United States and Iran that paved the way for the signing of the nuclear deal.

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Be that as it may, India and Brazil are determined to invade More space on the world stage. Both are part of BRICS, an organization that brings together the largest geographical and demographic powers, along with China and Russia. Both will chair the G20 – India in 2023 and Brazil next year -, A platform for your global ambitions If they know how to use it well. And both, above all, have long aspired to reform the United Nations Security Council, and they feel that they should occupy a place that suits them. And they are right. A creature designed To maintain the balance of power After World War II, it was not qualified to manage the complexity of the 21st century.

At the moment, India and Brazil are the favourites maintain balance between Russia and Ukraine; And between the US and China. It’s better to find new ways to avoid splitting the world into blocks. But they have to go that route Define what kind of vision they have That new global order and what rules they want it to be based on.