Loretta Meester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, participates in a panel discussion gathered to speak about the health of the US economy in New York on November 18, 2015.
Lucas Jackson | Reuters
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that if economic conditions remain unchanged… Central United States The bank meets to decide on the next step in monetary policy in July, which will call for a 75 basis point rate hike.
The Fed’s monetary tightening path has become a major driver of market activity in recent months as the central bank looks to act aggressively to rein in high inflation, while acknowledging the risks that a sharp rise in interest rates will increase the likelihood of an economic recession.
The The Fed chose to raise 75 basis points to its record price earlier this month, the largest increase since 1994, as inflation soared to a 40-year high.
Meester – a voting member of the FOMC – said the July meeting will likely include a discussion among FOMC policymakers about whether to choose 50 basis points or 75 basis points.
“If the conditions were exactly what they were today at that meeting – if it was today – I would defend 75 because I didn’t see the kind of inflation-related numbers I needed to see to even think about, we can go back to 50,” she told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.
Meester said she will assess supply and demand conditions over the coming weeks ahead of the meeting in order to determine the preferred path of monetary tightening.
Forecasts by individual FOMC members put the Fed’s reference rate at 3.4% by the end of the year, from the current target range of 1.5%-1.75%.
“I think raising rates to 3-3.5%, it’s really important that we do that, we do it urgently and we do it consistently as we go forward, so I think after that point there is more uncertainty about the long-term we will need to go,” Meester said. in order to curb inflation.
US markets fell on Tuesday After a disappointing consumer confidence reading, which came in at 98.7 versus the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 100, increased investors’ concerns about slowing economic growth and the potential compounding effect of monetary policy tightening.
Meester noted that consumers’ experience with inflation, which reached 8.6% at the headline level in May, “negates” their confidence in the economy.
“At the Fed, we’re on our way now to raise our interest rates to a more normal level and then maybe a little bit higher in the restricted area, so we can bring those inflation rates down so we can keep the economy moving forward,” she said.
“The first task for us now is to control inflation, and I think that now colors how consumers feel about the economy and where it’s going.”
Meester acknowledged that there is a risk of a recession as the Fed embarks on its tightening policy. However, its primary forecast is for growth to be slower this year, below “trend growth,” which it puts at 2%, as the Fed attempts to cool demand and bring it closer to restricted supply.
“I expect to see unemployment rise over the next two years to just over 4% or 4.25%, and again labor market conditions are still very good,” she said.
“So we are in this transition now, and I think this is going to be painful in some ways and it will be a bumpy road in some ways, but it is absolutely necessary that we do that to bring these inflation numbers down.”
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