May 17, 2022

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Bitcoin Price: $40K on Hand, But Analysts Warn The Possibility of Sweeping in Recent Lows

Bitcoin Price: $40K on Hand, But Analysts Warn The Possibility of Sweeping in Recent Lows

There was no respite for weary crypto traders on March 10 as a Print blisters 7.9% CPI It emerged as today’s headline, putting pressure on global financial markets and erasing the previous day’s gains in Bitcoin (BTC) as the price fell below $40,000.

information from Cointelegraph Markets Pro And the TradingView It shows that the bitcoin sell-off started in the early trading hours on Thursday and escalated into midday as the price reached a low of $38,562 before pulling back buyers bid again above the $39,000 support.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s what analysts have to say about the ongoing and expected price action for BTC and the levels to watch for a bullish breakout or a bearish breakout.

Price pressure precedes volatility

An insight into the recent volatility of Bitcoin was provided by a crypto trader and Twitter user with the pseudonym “Rekt Capital,” who to publish The following chart indicates that “Bitcoin is still consolidating between the lower green upper support level and the 50 week exponential moving average resistance.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

according to For Rekt Capital, “Higher bottoms and lower tops lead to price pressure. Price pressure precedes volatility.”

As for what it might take to restore the bullish combo, Rekt Capital has pointed out the green and blue EMA lines which have proven to be strong resistance points over the past two weeks.

Rekt Captial said,

“To move higher within the macro range, BTC needs to recover the two major bull market averages to confirm bullish momentum.”

BTC holders to sell risk a loss

The volatile nature of BTC price action in recent weeks is discussed by Stack Funds, which notes in its current weekly report that “Bitcoin has been declining in the past few weeks, trading in the $35,000-$45,000 range with no strong directional momentum Salim. ”

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According to Stack Funds, recent price action has been “mainly news-driven” and analysts see no near-term relief as the conflict in Ukraine and persistently high inflation remain major headwinds.

Evidence that traders have a low appetite for increased exposure to current market conditions can be found by looking at Bitcoin Spend Profit Ratio (SOPR), a measure that indicates the total gains and losses made on a given day.

Stack Funds notes that the long-term BTC holder SOPR is “heading towards a threshold value of 1.0,” which is an important level as it marks the line between selling at a profit or selling at a loss.

Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR. Source: Stack Funds

According to the report, the long-term SOPR holder has been trending lower since the Bitcoin price peaked in November 2021” and is currently trading “around the 1.5 handle.”

During the two instances on the chart above where SOPR trended and traded below the 1.0 threshold in mid-2018 and the end of 2019, “Bitcoin traded sideways and fell the most both times.”

Stack Funds said,

“Unless we see some positive catalyst in the markets or a reversal in the SOPR index, we would expect sideways trading and possibly a potential pullback in price action, at least in the short term.”

But not everything is bad and gloomy when it comes to the price of bitcoin from the point of view of on-chain analysis. In the following chart to publish By a crypto analyst and Twitter user pseudonymously “Plan C,” the analyst explains that “the number of Bitcoin accumulating addresses has gone equivalently over the past month.”

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The number of unique BTC pool addresses. Source: Twitter

Plan C defines backlog addresses as “addresses with at least two non-dust incoming transfers that have never spent BTC.”

Related: Bitcoin Simulates $40K Breakout as US CPI Inflation Data Matches 7.9% Estimates

Not bullish below $46000

As for the near-term outlook for Bitcoin, market analyst and Cointelegraph contributor Michael van de Poppe pointed Things don’t look bullish below the $46000 level and he believes that “the chances of taking these dips are very high”.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

This short-term bearish sentiment was recently echoed by David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer at ExoAlpha, who noted that the recent rally in BTC “came out of nowhere and lasted less than an hour without much follow-up.”

Lifchitz said,

“BTC is still stuck in the $33,000-$45,000 range. Without any follow-up over the next 48 hours and a potential breakout above $45,000-$50,000, BTC will likely continue to bounce back in the range.”

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is now at $1.744 trillion and the Bitcoin dominance rate is 42.6%.

The opinions and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.